Good afternoon — It’s Tuesday and Election Day.

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In today’s CapCon, almost every ballot scanner in Westchester County — a key suburban county — malfunctioned this morning. Here’s what happened and what it means.

Then, there’s a lot to watch tonight. Here are four things you should have your eyes on if you’re staying up late as the results roll in.

Later, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made an Election Day plea to fellow Democrats. But her memo seeks to plant seeds for 2028, not today.

Names in today’s CapCon: Susan Lerner, Mike Lawler, Cait Conley, Mondaire Jones, Ken Jenkins, Kathy Hochul, Lee Zeldin, George Pataki, Mario Cuomo, Bruce Blakeman, Nancy Pelosi, Anthony Constantino, Blake Gendebien, Robert Smullen, John Mannion, Josh Riley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Zohran Mamdani

A quick look at news on elections that might interest you

📋 READ: New York voter guides for the 2026 general election are still up! See who’s on the ballot in every region of the state here and a FAQ page here.

U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler voting on Tuesday (Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images)

☑️ What happened with Westchester County’s voting machines

Election Day didn’t start smoothly in a key suburban area.

That’s Westchester County, where the local board of elections said Tuesday morning that almost none of its ballot scanning machines were working. Poll workers instead started storing completed ballots in envelopes, as required by state law.

It wasn’t ideal, but election workers responded like they were supposed to, said Susan Lerner, executive director of Common Cause, a watchdog group.

Susan Lerner (Will Waldron/Times Union)

“New York’s election law establishes clear procedures to follow if machines fail at the polls,” Lerner said. “It’s a very detailed procedure.”

The technical failure doesn’t mean votes won’t get counted. It just means results will take longer than expected.

The state Board of Elections said in a statement that the malfunction was the result of an update to the county’s election programming that was required for a race in one municipality. But the rest of the county’s machines didn’t work properly.

“Election Day machines elsewhere in the county continued to use the original programming and therefore could not recognize and accept the ballots being used for Election Day,” the state board said in a statement.

Elections officials began to visit each of the county’s 332 polling locations Tuesday morning. The immediate priority, the state board said, is to have at least one functioning machine at every location that can begin to read ballots.

“Every valid vote will be counted, and the established canvass, recanvass, and post-election audit procedures will remain in place,” the state board said.

For most counties in New York, that wouldn’t be a big deal. But part of Westchester County is in the 17th Congressional District — one of the most competitive contests in the state.

Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler is facing a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley. Lawler flipped the seat from Democrats in 2022 and has been a top target ever since.

Conley on Monday (Photo by Andres Kudacki/Getty Images)

Lawler said Tuesday afternoon that he and Conley’s campaign planned to jointly seek an emergency court order. It would require any ballots cast at sites without functional scanners to be taken by police to a central location for tabulation.

"They will be opened at the Board of Elections, where attorneys from both campaigns will be, where both parties will have representation, so that there be no question, there be no conspiracy theory and that every vote is counted," Lawler told reporters.

Ballots cast at polling locations after at least one scanner has become functional would be counted there, which is what usually happens.

The situation will likely mean that the initial results of the race will favor Lawler if they reflect his performance in 2024.

The incumbent won the other three counties in the district — Rockland, Putnam and Dutchess — over former U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones, who was his challenger that year. Jones trounced Lawler in Westchester County.

Lawler said he still expected the race to be called at some point tonight.

“No matter the outcome, every vote should be counted and that is what’s going to happen and it’s going to happen tonight,” Lawler said

(Photo by Kena Betancur/Getty Images)

Westchester County Executive Ken Jenkins said during a press conference that he plans to convene a bipartisan review of the situation to find out what happened and to prevent it from happening again in the future. 

His office, Jenkins said, has no control or oversight of the local board of elections. It’s governed and overseen by the state Board of Elections.

"We're going to go back and there'll be some accountability for that because it's unconscionable that happened," Jenkins said. "It shouldn't have happened."

He said the machines weren’t compromised, despite conspiracy theories that sprung up almost immediately Tuesday morning.

(Lori Van Buren/Times Union)

👀 What to watch as election results roll in tonight

The race between Lawler and Conley is huge. But it’s also only one of several items worth watching tonight. Here are four things I’ll have my eyes on.

From 2022 (Photo by Alex Kent/Getty Images)

1️⃣ The margin of victory in the race for New York governor

Gov. Kathy Hochul defeated her Republican opponent, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator and former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, by less than seven points in 2022.

It was the closest margin of victory recorded in a race for governor since 1994, when Republican former Gov. George Pataki defeated incumbent Gov. Mario Cuomo, a Democrat. 

Hochul’s margin four years ago has brought more attention on her campaign this time around. Republicans, who haven’t won a statewide election since 2002, point to it as a sign of hope.

Public polling has largely favored Hochul, but some surveys showed a single-digit lead over her Republican opponent, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

If Blakeman wins, it would be considered a significant upset in New York. But if Hochul wins, her margin of victory will indicated whether she’s made inroads with voters over the last four years.

Constantino (center) (Jim Franco/Times Union)

2️⃣ Will New York help or hurt Democrats’ efforts to flip the U.S. House

Democrats, nationwide, need to gain at least three seats to wrestle control of the U.S. House from Republicans.

Former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, blamed the Empire State after Republicans secured a majority in the U.S. House four years ago. The GOP flipped multiple seats in New York that year.

Republicans hold seven of the state’s 26 seats in Congress. At least four of those districts are considered safely red.

But Democrats believe there’s a chance for them to flip at least two others. Their top target is Lawler, whose race could depend on turnout in the politically divided district. 

Democrats more recently set their sights on New York’s 21st Congressional District. Anthony Constantino, the Republican nominee, is a political firebrand who hasn’t always meshed well with conservatives.

He faces Blake Gendebien, a Democrat and dairy farmer who wasn’t considered viable until Constantino won the primary for the Republican nomination in June over Assemblyman Robert Smullen.

Blake Gendebien (Alexander MacDougall/Times Union)

Democrats also have their own incumbents to worry about. U.S. Reps. John Mannion and Josh Riley are considered to be the most vulnerable in that category.

3️⃣ If Democrats win back their supermajority in the state Senate

Democrats in the state Senate need to flip at least one seat from Republicans to win back their supermajority in the state’s upper chamber.

Having such a supermajority would allow Democrats in the state Legislature to overturn any veto handed down by Hochul. It’s a power they haven’t used since she took office in 2021.

The state Senate (Will Waldron/Times Union)

Padding their ranks makes it easier to bring controversial bills to the floor if they don’t have unanimous Democratic support.

I previously told you about 15 state Senate races that could be worth watching tonight. There are seven that are more likely to flip than the eight others.

4️⃣ The first big test of New York’s even-year election law

Democrats recently began the process of shifting most elections for local offices from odd- to even-numbered years. They’ve argued the change will increase turnout and voter engagement in local races.

Republicans say it leaves voters with less time to consider local candidates because national elections are on the ballot and dominate campaign spending.

(Lori van Buren/Times Union)

The expectation is that Democrats could flip local seats in areas where turnout is typically lower in odd-numbered years.

This is the first year that the law be in effect for many local races. On Long Island, the entire Nassau County Legislature is on the ballot, as are the town supervisors in Hempstead and North Hempstead. Both towns are more populace than the city of Albany.

The results will show whether Republicans can hold onto local power under the new electoral calendar.

Hochul, AOC and Mamdani Sunday (Photo by Dave Sanders-Pool/Getty Images)

✉️ AOC sends out Election Day memo ahead of 2028 decisions

U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez became noticeably more involved in state and national politics this year as she mulls her plans for 2028.

Her team sent out a memo Tuesday that highlights what they frame as her political prowess in recent years, working to elect candidates and raise millions of dollars for herself and others.

That included her decisions to endorse New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani before his election last year, to campaign with Hochul this year as well as a slate endorsements for state Senate and Assembly candidates.

“The congresswoman has emerged as one of the most powerful endorsements in the United States and New York state specifically,” the memo said.

Her team predicted that top Democrats would begin to discuss the future of the party in the days after the election. The memo, they wrote, was intended to lay out her record as they decide which candidates to run for higher office in 2028.

“In the coming days and weeks, much will be discussed about the future of the Democratic Party and 2028. You may be asked whether you support her running for president or for Senate in New York or staying in the House of Representatives,” the memo said. “We’d recommend you rely on the details of this memo and answer that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez will continue to do what she’s always done: look for ways to do the most good for the most people.”

☑️ Election Day: Polls close at 9 p.m. but you can still vote if you’re in line then. If you don’t know your polling place, you can find that here.